Hello readers,

It's been quite some time since I last updated my blog. I was busy with the other part of my life..hehe..Initially I thought that I could update my blog at least once a week, but I guess I was too ambitious =P

As we're observing the debt crisis in Europe and how it affects the stocks in Bursa Malaysia, one fundamental question investors would ask themselves is: Should I hold or sell my stocks?

Answering this question would depend on the invidividual investors. If one needs to cash out the money from the stock market for some urgent/important purposes, then I think it's good to sell off one's stocks because the current bearish trend could last for months before the start of another strong bullish trend. On the other hand, if one doesn't need to use the money and has a medium to long term horizon for one's investment (5 years to 10 years), then the Europe's debt crisis should not bother you. In fact, this is a good opportunity for bargain hunting to increase one's holding of fundamentally strong stocks. Readers of Andrew Chia's Bursa Winners' ebook would have equipped themselves with the right knowledge and tools to shop for undervalued stocks =)

Having a medium to long term horizon for your investment, good money management and an investment strategy helps to keep you from making irrational buy/sell decision based on the emotion of fear and greed (fear that the current Europe's debt crisis will wipe out your investment capital and greed in chasing after overvalued stocks).














(10 years Historical Chart)


Company Background

The Supermax Group was founded by Dato' Seri Stanley Thai and his wife Datin Seri Cheryl Tan in 1987 as a trading business distributing latex gloves which were sourced from contract manufacturers. In 1989, they started their first manufacturing facility. Today, the Supermax Group is the world's second-largest rubber glove manufacturer. It produces more than 14 billions pieces of gloves per year, meeting approximately 11% of the world demand for latex examination gloves.

The Supermax Group has eight (8) manufacturing plants based in Malaysia. Supermax currently exports to over 145 countries worldwide in the regions of America, Europe, Middle East, Asia and the South Pacific.
As an own-brand manufacturer, Supermax has developed a range of brands, namely Supermax, Aurelia, Maxter, Medic-dent and Supergloves.

In the 1st quarter of 2010 ended March 31st, the Supermax Group recently reported a 161.2% rise in earnings, on the back of 14.2% rise in revenue from the corresponding quarter last year.

Fundamentals

ROE: 23.3%

Average EPS Growth Rate: 29.7%

D/E: 0.30

Average P/E: 10.9

Dividend Yield: 2%

Fair Value: RM 7.20

Current Price: RM 6.99

Recommendation: BUY

Fair Value: RM 3.01
Current Price: RM 4.39
Recommendation: SELL / HOLD

Last Friday (19th March 2010), the company annouced its 3rd quarter profit report. The 3rd quarter's revenue and profit has dropped compared to the 2nd quarter. This could be a sign of downtrend on the company's earnings or it may not (potential growth in the Indonesian market).

Refer to previous write-up here for more info about this company.





Fair Value: RM 11.85

Current Price: RM 12.58

Recommendation: HOLD

Recently, Top Glove annouced its quarterly profit report. Its 2nd quarter profit almost doubled compared to previous year. Thus, I'm revising its Fair Value from RM9.97 to RM11.85. As the current market price has overshot this fair value, I'm giving it a Hold recommendation.

Refer to previous write-up here for more info on this company.

 
Fair Value: RM 2.76
Current Price: RM 4.68
Recommendation: SELL / HOLD

The Fair Value is adjusted to reflect the Bonus Issue of 1:5 and Share Split of 1 to 2 being exercised today.

Refer to previous write-up here for more info about this company.

By Ooi Kok Hwa
Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/3/10/business/5827481&sec=business


Analysts usually judge the quality of a company’s management team by looking at the comprehensiveness and truthfulness shown in the management statements

 
FOR the next few weeks, investors will start to receive annual reports for companies that have their financial year ended Dec 31. Even though the majority of investors may not look at those reports in detail (in fact, some investors may not even open the envelope containing the annual reports), some people will still spend time analysing the whole report. One of the key sections that investors will analyse in detail is the chairman’s statement and management discussion or operations review. In this article, we will label the above statements as management statements.

Most of the management statements will explain the companies’ immediate past one-year financial performance, external environment, major corporate developments as well as the companies’ future prospects.

Based on our observations, the majority of companies will try to explain and highlight a lot of positive elements that happened in the companies. It is very rare to find negative issues that affect the companies’ performances being discussed in the statements. Even though we cannot conclude that those companies that are willing to highlight their financial problems as good companies, at least these companies show their effort in trying to be truthful to their investors. This will provide a lot of plus points to these listed companies.

Analysts usually judge the quality of a company’s management team by looking at the comprehensiveness and truthfulness shown in the management statements.

Nowadays, if there are areas that a company does not comply with the accounting standards, the external auditor will highlight those areas inside the auditor report. Hence, investors need to read the management statements and financial statements together with the auditor’s report.

The management statements will normally provide the reasons driving the companies’ overall performance, whether good or bad. However, there are certain companies that tend to focus on higher sales and avoid mentioning the profitability when ever they report lower profits during the year. They will try to avoid the reasons causing the reduction in profits, for example, higher operating costs, raw material costs or stiff price competition.

Some times, some companies will claim they have managed to maintain profits at the same level as the previous year. However, if we further analyse the financial statements, we will notice that the profit had included a lot of exceptional items, such as gains from the disposal of fixed assets as well as investments. Hence, we should not rely on the explanation given by the management in the chairman’s statement.

In fact, we need to investigate further the driving factors for the profitability of the company, especially if it had included some exceptional gains or losses, which are not part of the company’s normal operations. These details can be found in the notes to the accounts. Normally, most companies will list the key items that affect their profitability in the notes to the “profit before tax”.

We can get a summary of key corporate developments that happened in the company in the “corporate development” section. If you have been following the company’s corporate developments, this section may not provide you a lot of new information.

Nevertheless, certain companies may provide the latest status of their corporate developments, such as any new projects being initiated or certain approvals from relevant parties being granted for their critical projects.

As for the section on the company’s future prospects, investors should not place too much weight on it. Based on our experience, a lot of Malaysian companies have the same statement on future prospects by saying that “the company will perform better in the future”.

There are companies that have reported losses every year but the chairmen will still say the companies would perform better next year without the backing of solid grounds to improve profitability.

Hence, a good company statement should provide a fair account of the actual happening in the company. In reality, it is quite difficult for listed companies to hide their problems as the level of financial literacy of the general public has improved over years.

There are some mature investors and analysts who are able to detect the problems faced by the company by analysing the notes to the accounts in addition to making comparison of the current financial statements versus the statements or quarterly financial statements of past years.

● Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.


Daniel Wong's Note: When you read the Annual Report, just look past the fancy management statements in the front pages and head straight to its Financial Statements at the back pages. If you want to be a successful investor, it is important to be financially literate. If you don't know how to read Financial Statements, I highly recommend Andrew Chia's Workshop on Basic Financial Accounting offered for his Money Secrets readers. Details here: http://andrewchia.com/?page_id=1548


Today, I saw an interesting news about Grace Groner who bequeaths $7 million to her alma mater, Lake Forest College. What's the secret of her great fortune? She bought 3 units of Abbott Laboratories's shares at $60 each in 1935, during the Great Depression and hold them until now. Guess how much her 3 shares bought at $60 each worth altogether now? Yes, you can guess from my first sentence above: $7 million!

See the news here: http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749625/secret-millionaire-donates-her-fortune-18460698

Disclaimer

This is a personal weblog, reflecting the author's personal views. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.